‘Water War’ Erupts: Pakistan Rages as India Suspends Indus Treaty—Will Shimla Agreement Survive?

How does Indus Treaty to come under picture ! Actually it all started on April 22, 2025, the valley of Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir was rocked by a devastating terrorist attack. Gunmen targeted a group of tourists, killing 26 people and injuring many more. The brutality of the attack in Pahalgam, which struck at the heart of India’s tourism sector and national pride, triggered a wave of outrage across the country.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed swift and decisive action, stating, “India will identify, track, and punish every terrorist and their backers. Our spirit will never be broken by terrorism.” The government, convinced of cross-border involvement—especially after The Resistance Front, a group with alleged Pakistani links, claimed responsibility—decided to respond with unprecedented measures.

India’s Bold Response: Suspending the Indus Water Treaty

Within hours, India’s Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) convened and announced a series of retaliatory steps. The most dramatic among them was the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT)—a move that sent shockwaves through the region. For the first time since 1960, India declared the treaty “held in abeyance with immediate effect, until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism.”

Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri emphasized the gravity of the decision:

“Strong expressions of support and solidarity have been received from many Governments around the world, which have unequivocally condemned this terror attack. The CCS recorded its appreciation for such sentiments, which reflect zero tolerance for terrorism.”

Other steps included closing the Attari border crossing, expelling Pakistani military advisors, and drastically reducing diplomatic staff. The message was clear: India would use every lever at its disposal—diplomatic, economic, and strategic—to protect its citizens and interests.

What Is the Indus Water Treaty? The Backbone of Peace

The Indus Water Treaty, signed in 1960 by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan with the World Bank as a broker, is one of the world’s most successful water-sharing agreements. It divided the six rivers of the Indus basin, granting India exclusive rights over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) and Pakistan over the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab). India could use the western rivers for limited irrigation and hydropower but was not allowed to reduce their flow to Pakistan.

The treaty established a Permanent Indus Commission for data sharing and dispute resolution and survived wars, diplomatic breakdowns, and decades of hostility. Its stability was so remarkable that it became a symbol of hope for cooperation even in the most hostile of times.

Why Is the Indus Water Treaty So Critical for Pakistan?

The IWT is nothing less than Pakistan’s lifeline:

• Agriculture: 80% of Pakistan’s cultivated land depends on Indus waters. Punjab and Sindh, the country’s breadbaskets, rely almost entirely on these rivers for irrigation.
• Food Security: Crops like cotton and rice, crucial for Pakistan’s economy and exports, are highly water-dependent.
• Urban and Rural Water Supply: Major cities like Karachi and Lahore, as well as millions of rural households, depend on the Indus for drinking water.
• Hydropower: The Indus system powers much of Pakistan’s electricity grid. Disruption could lead to widespread blackouts and further economic strain.

Trade analyst S Chandrasekaran notes, “India has the ability to retain water in its reservoirs until at least September and possibly longer without releasing any to Pakistan. A shortage of water will jeopardize cotton yields and could have dire consequences for Pakistan’s already struggling textile sector.”

Pakistani Outrage: Social Media Erupts

The Indian decision sparked a firestorm in Pakistan, both in official circles and on social media.

These tweets reflect the outrage, fear, and determination within Pakistan. The threat to walk away from the Shimla Agreement—a bedrock of bilateral diplomacy since 1972—signals a possible unravelling of the last diplomatic framework holding the two nuclear-armed neighbours together.

The Shimla Agreement: Next on the Chopping Block?

Signed in 1972 after the Indo-Pakistani War, the Shimla Agreement committed both countries to resolve disputes bilaterally and respect the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir. For decades, it has served as a diplomatic safety net, preventing internationalization of the Kashmir dispute and providing a mechanism for dialogue, even in times of crisis.

Now, with Pakistan openly threatening to abandon Shimla, the region stands on the brink of a new and dangerous phase. If the agreement collapses, the Kashmir issue could be internationalized, the Line of Control could become a mere ceasefire line, and the risk of escalation—military or otherwise—would increase dramatically.

Why Will Pakistan Suffer the Most?

The suspension of the IWT is a strategic blow to Pakistan for several reasons:

• Water Dependency: As a lower riparian country, Pakistan is almost entirely reliant on the Indus system for agriculture, drinking water, and power. India, as the upper riparian, controls the headwaters and can now regulate flows, especially during critical planting seasons.
• Economic Impact: Cotton and rice production, key to Pakistan’s economy and exports, are at risk. Smallholder farmers without access to groundwater will be hit hardest.
• Power Shortages: Hydropower generation will be affected, forcing Pakistan to import more coal and straining its foreign exchange reserves.
• Urban Crisis: Cities already facing water shortages could see a 30% deficit worsen, leading to public health emergencies.
• Internal Discord: Provinces like Punjab and Sindh, already at odds over water sharing, may see disputes intensify, threatening national unity.

Pakistan’s Retaliation

Pakistan unleashed a sweeping series of retaliatory measures against India on Thursday following escalating tensions over the Pahalgam terror attack. After an emergency National Security Committee meeting chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Pakistan announced the immediate closure of its airspace to all Indian-owned or operated airlines, suspended all trade including indirect commerce via third countries, and closed the Wagah border crossing with immediate effect in reply to India’s take on Indus Treaty. 

In a dramatic diplomatic escalation, Pakistan declared it would “hold all bilateral agreements with India including but not limited to Simla Agreement in abeyance” and labeled Indian defense attachés as persona non grata, ordering them to leave by April 30. Additionally, Pakistan suspended all visas under the SAARC exemption scheme for Indian nationals, requiring those already in the country to exit within 48 hours (except Sikh pilgrims), and reduced India’s diplomatic presence to just 30 staff members. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar characterized India’s earlier actions as “immature and hasty,” while warning that “any kinetic action from India will provoke a reciprocal kinetic response”

India’s Justification: Harsh but Strategic

For India, suspending the IWT is a harsh but calculated response to unending cross-border terrorism. After decades of restraint—even during wars—India is signaling that its goodwill cannot be taken for granted. The move is non-kinetic, lawful, and leverages India’s geographic advantage as the upper riparian. It also sends a message to the world: India will defend its people and interests, and will not allow terrorism to go unpunished.

Indians can take pride in a government willing to act decisively, using every tool at its disposal—diplomatic, economic, and strategic—to protect national security. The overwhelming support from global leaders, who condemned the Pahalgam attack and expressed solidarity with India, further strengthens the nation’s resolve.

Conclusion: Will the Shimla Agreement Survive?

The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty has triggered a diplomatic earthquake, with Pakistan threatening to abandon the Shimla Agreement and escalate the crisis. As social media erupts and officials trade warnings, the future of peace in South Asia hangs in the balance. Will the Shimla Agreement survive this “water war,” or are we witnessing the unraveling of the last threads of Indo-Pakistani diplomacy? Only time will tell—but one thing is certain: the stakes have never been higher, and the world is watching.

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